For a Pokémon 151 grading flip, the finish can matter as much as the Pokémon. These five English variants illustrate different ways a raw-to-PSA-10 spread can fail to become a profitable submission. Use the table to screen a card, then compare your actual purchase and submission costs.
Five English 151 variants to compare
Stored PriceCharting references and PSA population data. Prices refresh weekly and population source dates can differ. Recheck the linked card pages before submitting. These references are not newly verified sold transactions or available mint purchases.
| Exact variant | Raw | PSA 9 | PSA 10 | Gem rate | Graded sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pikachu [Holiday Calendar] #25 | $4.11 | $24.28 | $344.97 | 33.0% | 276 |
| Dragonite [Cosmos Holo] #149 | $4.98 | $26.03 | $566.88 | 19.0% | 169 |
| Gengar [Reverse Holo] #94 | $8.50 | $59.48 | $724.98 | 16.7% | 1,018 |
| Magikarp [Reverse Holo] #129 | $0.85 | $18.00 | $226.50 | 31.5% | 127 |
| Raichu [Cosmos Holo] #26 | $3.85 | $31.13 | $224.50 | 34.0% | 71 |
What a submission has to cover
Conditional PSA 10 profit equals the PSA 10 sale after selling fees, less your purchase price, grading fee and other costs. Modeled expected net profit also includes lower-grade outcomes. A positive PSA 10 profit alone cannot establish a positive expected return.
For example, assume a $5 purchase, $60 grading charge, $15 other costs and a 13% selling fee. A graded sale must exceed $91.95 just to recover that $80 outlay ($80 ÷ 0.87). At a $200 PSA 10 sale and $30 PSA 9 sale, the two outcome profits are $94.00 and −$53.90. This simplified two-grade model needs about 36.4% PSA 10 outcomes just to break even. These are hypothetical inputs, not a PSA quote or a prediction for any row above.
The full card pages include more grade outcomes and the current service selector. Check any missing-price fallback before relying on the model. For a card you already own, also compare the proceeds you give up by selling raw instead of grading.
1. Pikachu [Holiday Calendar] #25
Does the stamped printing justify the grading risk?
The Holiday Calendar printing has its own market. A regular Pikachu #25 price or population cannot answer this question. Compare the exact stamped copy, including surface wear around the stamp, with sold copies of the same printing.
With the stored raw reference, $59.99 PSA Standard grading and a 13% selling fee, the model estimates $46.59 expected net profit versus $236.02 conditional PSA 10 profit. Shipping, insurance, tax, supplies, possible upcharges and holding costs are additional. Missing grade prices may use raw value as a fallback. A changed sale price or condition assumption can reverse the result.
2. Dragonite [Cosmos Holo] #149
How much of the return depends on PSA 10?
A wide Cosmos Holo spread can make the best case look attractive. The PSA 9 reference and the recorded grade distribution show the cost of missing that grade. Keep the Cosmos Holo separate from the regular holo and reverse holo.
With the stored raw reference, $59.99 PSA Standard grading and a 13% selling fee, the model estimates $45.39 expected net profit versus $428.22 conditional PSA 10 profit. Shipping, insurance, tax, supplies, possible upcharges and holding costs are additional. Missing grade prices may use raw value as a fallback. A changed sale price or condition assumption can reverse the result.
3. Gengar [Reverse Holo] #94
Are you comparing the English reverse holo?
Gengar #94 appears in different languages and finishes. This row uses the English Scarlet & Violet 151 reverse holo. A Chinese 151 Collect reverse, a regular holo or a Cosmos Holo needs its own analysis, even when the card number matches.
With the stored raw reference, $59.99 PSA Standard grading and a 13% selling fee, the model estimates $69.17 expected net profit versus $562.24 conditional PSA 10 profit. Shipping, insurance, tax, supplies, possible upcharges and holding costs are additional. Missing grade prices may use raw value as a fallback. A changed sale price or condition assumption can reverse the result.
4. Magikarp [Reverse Holo] #129
Can a cheap raw card cover the submission cost?
A small acquisition price leaves the grading fee as most of your cash at risk. Compare the lower-grade proceeds with the total submission cost. A large PSA 10 multiple of a sub-dollar raw reference does not show that a gem-quality copy can be sourced at that price.
With the stored raw reference, $59.99 PSA Standard grading and a 13% selling fee, the model estimates $9.60 expected net profit versus $136.22 conditional PSA 10 profit. Shipping, insurance, tax, supplies, possible upcharges and holding costs are additional. Missing grade prices may use raw value as a fallback. A changed sale price or condition assumption can reverse the result.
5. Raichu [Cosmos Holo] #26
Is the population large enough to trust the screen?
Read the denominator beside the rate. A small recorded sample can move sharply with a few additional submissions. Buying several raw copies does not guarantee that the batch will reproduce the historical grade mix.
With the stored raw reference, $59.99 PSA Standard grading and a 13% selling fee, the model estimates $17.83 expected net profit versus $131.47 conditional PSA 10 profit. Shipping, insurance, tax, supplies, possible upcharges and holding costs are additional. Missing grade prices may use raw value as a fallback. A changed sale price or condition assumption can reverse the result.
When to pass on a 151 grading purchase
Pass when the deal needs a PSA 10 to recover the outlay and you have not established the condition of the copy. Pass when the price reference comes from another finish or language. If a few thin sales drive the premium, test a weaker sale price before buying. The reported annual sales volume does not establish recent liquidity for a specific PSA grade.
A low population also needs a supply check. More submissions during your grading wait can change the competitive market. Read how population growth affects a resale thesis, then inspect the exact 151 card's dated source.
Research the whole set
Use the English Scarlet & Violet 151 card list to find other printings. Compare an individual copy in the grading calculator. Check the current PSA service terms before submitting.