Terastal Festival grading: test costs beyond the headline
Terastal Festival examples combine different acquisition costs and historical grade shares. Those records do not establish that Japanese cards universally outperform English cards or that a high gem rate makes costs unimportant.
What to verify for this topic
Check the exact numbered ex printing and intended grading company. Compare the expected result with the conditional PSA 10 result after sale fees, then add your shipping and other actual expenses. For a repeat workflow, save the assumptions and revisit them when new sold evidence changes the exit price.
Dated reference examples
Captured September 5, 2026. These are database reference prices, not independently verified recent sold comparables or buy recommendations. Each linked record identifies its set and source.
Umbreon Ex #217 — Pokemon Japanese Terastal Festival
Pikachu Ex #236 — Pokemon Japanese Terastal Festival
Sylveon Ex #212 — Pokemon Japanese Terastal Festival
Espeon Ex #211 — Pokemon Japanese Terastal Festival
| Card | Raw | PSA 10 | Gem rate | Expected net profit | PSA 10 net profit | PSA 10 ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Umbreon Ex #217 | $395.00 | $680.94 | 87.0% | $145.65 | $172.42 | 41.0% |
| Pikachu Ex #236 | $48.53 | $162.50 | 81.0% | $50.76 | $67.84 | 92.3% |
| Sylveon Ex #212 | $125.91 | $210.00 | 90.0% | $26.20 | $31.79 | 21.1% |
| Espeon Ex #211 | $69.99 | $145.92 | 87.0% | $23.37 | $31.96 | 33.7% |
Read the model correctly
The comparison uses a $25 PSA Value Bulk model fee and a 13% selling fee. Verify current service eligibility, declared-value limits and possible upcharges before submitting. The table excludes shipping, tax, insurance, supplies and time costs.
Expected net profit weights resale outcomes across the recorded grade distribution, applies the selling fee, and deducts raw and grading costs once. PSA 10 net profit assumes the card receives PSA 10. PSA 10 ROI divides that conditional profit by raw plus grading cost. It is not expected ROI.
Historical population shares are assumptions for this calculation, not personal grading probabilities. Missing grade-price references may use the engine's raw-price fallback; unmodeled outcomes and sparse records can materially change the result. Inspect the current card detail and replace reference inputs with your actual costs and verified sold evidence.
Incomplete outcome pricing in this snapshot: Umbreon Ex #217; Pikachu Ex #236; Espeon Ex #211. Treat their expected results as provisional.
Build a repeatable decision
Open a card record, check the exact variant and source, adjust the purchase assumptions, and save the analysis to your account. Revisit it before buying or submitting. The methodology explains the model; Pro describes the available research features. A saved analysis records a decision assumption, not a realized return.
Correction — September 5, 2026: Removed the incorrect release year, unsupported Japanese-versus-English quality and price claims, and assertions that fees are negligible or turnover is predictable. The URL is preserved so earlier links lead to the correction. The current table replaces the historical figures with a dated, explicitly labeled model snapshot.