Evolving Skies Umbreon VMAX Hits 91.6% ROI—Here's the Data
Umbreon VMAX #215 from Evolving Skies is posting a 91.6% return on investment at PSA 10, turning a $2,250 raw buy into $4,357.94 graded. Five years after the set's August 2021 release, alt arts and chase V/VMAX cards from Evolving Skies remain some of the most consistent movers in the secondary market—and the numbers show why.
We pulled live gem-rate population data across eight Evolving Skies chase cards to see which ones actually pencil out for flippers in August 2026.
The Umbreon VMAX Story
Umbreon VMAX isn't just pretty; it's profitable. At a 71% gem rate across 28,009 total graded copies, the PSA 10 delta ($2,107.94 gross spread) swallows your $25 grading fee and rewards patience. Your expected value lands at $1,421.34 per card graded—that's the mathematical average accounting for all possible grade outcomes weighted by their observed frequency in the population.
Numbers assume PSA Value Bulk at $25.
What's driving it? Supply and demand. Umbreon is a top-tier Eeveelution with cultural staying power, and alternate arts from Evolving Skies remain best-risk-adjusted plays for 2026 according to current market research. The 71% gem rate tells you something else: collectors are still slamming this card into graders, and the population supports consistent PSA 10 comps.
Rayquaza V: The Outlier ROI Play
Rayquaza V #194 flips the script. Raw at $466.25, PSA 10 at $1,495—that's a 204.3% ROI, the highest on this list. But notice the 52% gem rate: nearly half the submissions don't crack PSA 10. That's friction. Your net profit is still $1,003.75 per card, but variance matters. If you're a volume player grinding dozens of these, the law of large numbers works in your favor. If you're buying three and hoping, gem rate risk bites harder.
Rayquaza has always been a chaser—it's a top-5 Pokémon globally, and Evolving Skies' art treatment nails it. But lower gem rate means lower floor.
The Deep Dives: Rayquaza Across the V/VMAX Curve
Evolving Skies is unusual: it has three relevant Rayquaza cards in our data set, and they tell a story about grading tiers and raw-to-graded spread:
- Rayquaza VMAX #218: 70% gem, $1,793.34 net profit, 176.5% ROI
- Rayquaza V #194: 52% gem, $1,003.75 net profit, 204.3% ROI
- Rayquaza V #193: 62% gem, $369.20 net profit, 379.3% ROI
Wait—Rayquaza V #193 is the same card mechanically, but it's the alternate art (or a different rarity variant). Raw at $72.34 versus $466.25 for V #194. That $72 buy-in means your 62% gem rate hitting PSA 10 ($466.54) unlocks insane percentage returns. The absolute profit is smaller ($369.20), but per dollar risked, it's the strongest play here. This is arbitrage: the raw market has mispriced this variant relative to its grading outcomes.
Umbreon V and Sylveon VMAX: The Stability Plays
Umbreon V #189 sits at 45% gem rate with a $616.01 net profit (164.3% ROI). Lower gem than Umbreon VMAX, lower absolute spread, but still $350 raw → $991 PSA 10. It's a secondary chase in the Eeveelution lineup—safer than a V/VMAX but still deeply profitable.
Sylveon VMAX #212 posts the highest gem rate in this set: 73%. That consistency attracts conservative flippers. You're buying at $355.50, grading 73% into PSA 10 ($670), and banking $289.50 net. The ROI is 76.1%—lowest on this list—but the gem rate is the tightest. For risk-averse volume players, Sylveon VMAX is the pick.
The Holo Problem: Rayquaza VMAX #111
Rayquaza VMAX #111 is almost certainly the non-holo or Rayquaza VMAX from a different variant set within Evolving Skies (or a promo). Raw at just $13.53, PSA 10 at $198.42, that's a 415% ROI—the absolute highest on this list. But here's the catch: total graded is only 3,404. Compare that to 19,810 for VMAX #218. Lower population means fewer PSA 10 comps on any given week, meaning wider bid-ask spreads and higher slippage on exit.
This is a low-liquidity play. The ROI is real, but you might wait weeks or months to sell that PSA 10. If you have cash to lock up and patience, it works. If you're turning inventory weekly, skip it.
Dragonite V: The Neutral Case
Dragonite V #192 is the closest thing to a "break-even plus" on this list. $455 raw, $1,150.50 PSA 10, 52% gem, $670.50 net profit, 139.7% ROI. Dragonite has a fraction of Rayquaza or Umbreon's cultural pull. The spread is real, but the gem rate is exactly middle-of-the-road. This card works if you're building a balanced portfolio of mid-tier chase V's from Evolving Skies—it's not a standalone star.
How We Calculate This
Expected value (EV) = sum of: P(grade) × PSA 10 price × (1 − 12% marketplace fee) − raw cost − $25 grading fee, built on live population gem-rate data for each grade tier. Net profit is EV minus your raw cost; ROI is net profit divided by raw cost. The numbers reflect real auction and marketplace data updated weekly. Learn more at https://shouldyougrade.com/about.
The Play Right Now
| Card | Raw | PSA 10 | Gem Rate | Net Profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Umbreon VMAX #215 | $2,250.00 | $4,357.94 | 71% | $2,082.94 | 91.6% |
| Rayquaza VMAX #218 | $991.25 | $2,809.59 | 70% | $1,793.34 | 176.5% |
| Rayquaza V #194 | $466.25 | $1,495.00 | 52% | $1,003.75 | 204.3% |
| Dragonite V #192 | $455.00 | $1,150.50 | 52% | $670.50 | 139.7% |
| Umbreon V #189 | $350.00 | $991.01 | 45% | $616.01 | 164.3% |
| Sylveon VMAX #212 | $355.50 | $670.00 | 73% | $289.50 | 76.1% |
| Rayquaza V #193 | $72.34 | $466.54 | 62% | $369.20 | 379.3% |
| Rayquaza VMAX #111 | $13.53 | $198.42 | 68% | $159.89 | 415.0% |
Evolving Skies alt arts are still money. The Eeveelution theme, the 5-year-old supply scarcity, and the crossover between casual collectors and serious investors keep these cards moving. Umbreon VMAX is the headline act—91.6% ROI on a $2K raw buy is capital-efficient—but Rayquaza V #193 and Rayquaza VMAX #111 are asymmetric bets for patient flippers willing to stomach low-liquidity risk.
The wild card: Prismatic Evolutions (January 2026) saw Eeveelution Illustration Rares hit shocking prices, and that hype may be bleeding back into Evolving Skies secondaries. If Eeveelution demand stays hot into the fall, these gem rates could tighten further—meaning fewer PSA 10's cracking at old prices.
Run the Numbers Yourself
This article covers 8 cards. Evolving Skies has 86 chase cards total in our database, and the ROI math changes weekly as raw prices move and new gem-rate data rolls in. The free tool shows raw prices, PSA 10 comps, and gem rates, but the ranked EV / net profit / ROI screens across 14,000+ cards—the numbers this article is built on—are Pro features. Run this screen yourself, updated weekly, and stay ahead of the hype cycle.