Pikachu V Celebrations Card ROI hits 696%—Grade or Hold?

Pikachu V Celebrations Card ROI hits 696%—Grade or Hold?

Pokémon Celebrations has quietly become a goldmine for graders willing to dig past the hype. While newer sets like Chaos Rising and the upcoming 30th Celebration grab headlines, the original Celebrations release from 2020 is still moving volume—and the math says some cards are worth your grading budget.

The headline number: Pikachu V #SWSH145 from Celebrations is showing a 696% ROI at PSA 10, according to live population data and recent comp sales. That's not a typo. Let's break down what's actually happening in the set and which cards are worth your raw money.

The Celebrations Moment

Celebrations was a special 25th-anniversary release that packed reprints and exclusive cards into one of the most accessible sets ever printed. Five years later, it's still one of the most graded modern sets in existence—52,863 Charizard #4 copies have hit graders alone. But volume ≠ profit. The gem rates and price gaps tell a very different story.

The market right now is fixated on the 30th Celebration dropping September 16, and with Mega Evolution: Pitch Black just hitting on July 17, the vintage WOTC and anniversary-era cards are seeing renewed attention. Celebrations sits in that sweet spot: recent enough to have cheap raw inventory, nostalgic enough to drive PSA 10 demand.

The Data

Here's what 8 of the strongest Celebrations performers look like at PSA Value Bulk ($25 grading cost):

The standouts are obvious. Surfing Pikachu V and Flying Pikachu V are sitting at over 1100% ROI on paper—but notice the gem rates. 44% and 43% respectively. That means you're losing nearly 60% of your cards to sub-10 grades. The expected value (EV) still pencils out, but you need thick skin for variance.

Contrast that with M Rayquaza EX at 71% gem rate: lower raw cost, higher gem rate, more consistent profit. Charizard #4 sits at 61% gem and a solid 195% ROI—the safest of the bunch at scale.

Why Celebrations Is Moving Now

Three things:

1. Stability after hype. The set has been graded 28k–52k times per card. Population is stable. You're not racing into uncharted territory.

2. Reprints drive demand. The 30th Celebration release next month includes new Pikachu variations and Mewtwo/Mew cards that will inevitably push collectors back to the original Celebrations Pikachus as the "OG" versions. Vintage WOTC is having a moment, and Celebrations is the closest modern equivalent to that feeling.

3. PSA 10 comps are real. These aren't speculative numbers. Pikachu V #SWSH145 is moving at $1,137.50 in PSA 10 with steady sales volume. The Surfing Pikachu variants have consistent sub-$400 pricing at 10—and at $5 raw, the arbitrage is impossible to ignore, gem rate risk notwithstanding.

The Catch

Celebrations had a huge print run. That's why raw cards are so cheap. The flip side: grading is saturated. You're competing with thousands of other submissions on these popular cards. Gem rates reflect that—high print volume means more imperfect centering, more corner wear.

If you're betting on Surfing Pikachu V's 1173% ROI, you need to be comfortable with 56% of your cards coming back as PSA 9 or lower. For a $5 raw card, that's manageable. For Pikachu V #SWSH145 at $118 raw, a PSA 9 or PSA 8 is a catastrophic outcome—you might not recoup your cost.

How We Calculate This

Expected value (EV) assumes you submit at PSA Value Bulk and accounts for the probability of hitting each grade based on live population gem rates. The formula: sum over all grades of P(grade) × comp price × (1 − 12% TCGPlayer seller fee) − raw cost − $25 grading fee. Net Profit is EV minus raw cost; ROI is Net Profit ÷ raw cost. These numbers update weekly as comps and populations shift. For the full methodology, see Should You Grade's About page.

The Play

If you're hunting for Celebrations flips, start with the low-raw-price variants: Surfing Pikachu, Flying Pikachu, and Blastoise. Gem rates are reasonable, upside is enormous, and downside on a $5 card is minimal. Charizard and Umbreon are heavier bets but more stable.

Avoid chasing Pikachu V #SWSH145 unless you have the inventory to absorb variance. One 696% ROI card is a highlight; three PSA 9s in a row is a graveyard.

Next: Deeper Screening

Celebrations has 53 cards in our database—we've only shown 8 here. To see the full ranked list by EV, gem rate, sales volume, and net profit, and to scan all 14,000+ cards across every era, you'll want Pro. The free tool shows you raw prices and PSA 10 comps, but the ranked ROI and EV screens—the data this article is built on—update weekly and are Pro-only. Run the screen yourself.