Celebrations grading: investigate unusually wide spreads
Celebrations includes distinct Pikachu products and numbered reprint cards. A very wide raw-to-slab spread should trigger a variant and sold-sale review. It does not establish an overlooked arbitrage opportunity by itself.
What to verify for this topic
Match ordinary, promotional and special treatments from the photographs and slab label. Confirm actual sale dates and transaction prices; an asking price does not validate the exit. The earlier article called prices proven without preserving that verification, so the table is now explicitly a reference snapshot.
Dated reference examples
Captured September 5, 2026. These are database reference prices, not independently verified recent sold comparables or buy recommendations. Each linked record identifies its set and source.
Charizard #4 — Pokemon Celebrations
Pikachu V #SWSH145 — Pokemon Celebrations
Pikachu Birthday #24 — Pokemon Celebrations
Surfing Pikachu V #8 — Pokemon Celebrations
| Card | Raw | PSA 10 | Gem rate | Expected net profit | PSA 10 net profit | PSA 10 ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charizard #4 | $160.00 | $510.50 | 61.0% | $149.03 | $259.13 | 140.1% |
| Pikachu V #SWSH145 | $116.69 | $967.50 | 22.0% | $113.32 | $700.04 | 494.1% |
| Pikachu Birthday #24 | $34.28 | $225.25 | 65.0% | $88.55 | $136.69 | 230.6% |
| Surfing Pikachu V #8 | $4.11 | $205.00 | 44.1% | $61.86 | $149.24 | 512.7% |
Read the model correctly
The comparison uses a $25 PSA Value Bulk model fee and a 13% selling fee. Verify current service eligibility, declared-value limits and possible upcharges before submitting. The table excludes shipping, tax, insurance, supplies and time costs.
Expected net profit weights resale outcomes across the recorded grade distribution, applies the selling fee, and deducts raw and grading costs once. PSA 10 net profit assumes the card receives PSA 10. PSA 10 ROI divides that conditional profit by raw plus grading cost. It is not expected ROI.
Historical population shares are assumptions for this calculation, not personal grading probabilities. Missing grade-price references may use the engine's raw-price fallback; unmodeled outcomes and sparse records can materially change the result. Inspect the current card detail and replace reference inputs with your actual costs and verified sold evidence.
Incomplete outcome pricing in this snapshot: Charizard #4; Pikachu V #SWSH145; Pikachu Birthday #24; Surfing Pikachu V #8. Treat their expected results as provisional.
Build a repeatable decision
Open a card record, check the exact variant and source, adjust the purchase assumptions, and save the analysis to your account. Revisit it before buying or submitting. The methodology explains the model; Pro describes the available research features. A saved analysis records a decision assumption, not a realized return.
Correction — September 5, 2026: Removed unsupported future-release catalysts, assurances that quoted prices are verified sold comps, and the incorrect double subtraction of raw cost. The URL is preserved so earlier links lead to the correction. The current table replaces the historical figures with a dated, explicitly labeled model snapshot.