Black Bolt grading: review the cost of a missed grade
Seismitoad #105, Zekrom ex and Victini have different entry costs. A large headline return does not establish which fits a flipper's cash budget. These examples separate a PSA 10 outcome from the distribution-weighted expected result.
What to verify for this topic
For each candidate, write down the raw purchase cost, the eligible submission fee and the resale outcome at a plausible lower grade. If that downside would prevent the next sourcing cycle, reduce the commitment or pass. The model cannot establish your personal probability of a gem grade.
Dated reference examples
Captured September 5, 2026. These are database reference prices, not independently verified recent sold comparables or buy recommendations. Each linked record identifies its set and source.
Seismitoad #105 — Pokemon Black Bolt
Zekrom ex #172 — Pokemon Black Bolt
Victini #171 — Pokemon Black Bolt
Zekrom ex #166 — Pokemon Black Bolt
| Card | Raw | PSA 10 | Gem rate | Expected net profit | PSA 10 net profit | PSA 10 ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seismitoad #105 | $219.34 | $2113.00 | 18.0% | $256.78 | $1593.97 | 652.4% |
| Zekrom ex #172 | $598.10 | $1433.00 | 52.0% | $248.61 | $623.61 | 100.1% |
| Victini #171 | $582.50 | $1504.75 | 51.0% | $300.72 | $701.63 | 115.5% |
| Zekrom ex #166 | $275.00 | $495.76 | 63.0% | $50.40 | $131.31 | 43.8% |
Read the model correctly
The comparison uses a $25 PSA Value Bulk model fee and a 13% selling fee. Verify current service eligibility, declared-value limits and possible upcharges before submitting. The table excludes shipping, tax, insurance, supplies and time costs.
Expected net profit weights resale outcomes across the recorded grade distribution, applies the selling fee, and deducts raw and grading costs once. PSA 10 net profit assumes the card receives PSA 10. PSA 10 ROI divides that conditional profit by raw plus grading cost. It is not expected ROI.
Historical population shares are assumptions for this calculation, not personal grading probabilities. Missing grade-price references may use the engine's raw-price fallback; unmodeled outcomes and sparse records can materially change the result. Inspect the current card detail and replace reference inputs with your actual costs and verified sold evidence.
Incomplete outcome pricing in this snapshot: Seismitoad #105. Treat their expected results as provisional.
Build a repeatable decision
Open a card record, check the exact variant and source, adjust the purchase assumptions, and save the analysis to your account. Revisit it before buying or submitting. The methodology explains the model; Pro describes the available research features. A saved analysis records a decision assumption, not a realized return.
Correction — September 5, 2026: Removed misleading descriptions of the raw outlay, exaggerated profit magnitudes and unsupported batch-profit promises. The URL is preserved so earlier links lead to the correction. The current table replaces the historical figures with a dated, explicitly labeled model snapshot.