White Flare grading: separate upside from expected return
Oshawott #105 and the different Reshiram ex printings have distinct costs and grading records. A large conditional PSA 10 percentage can come from a small raw denominator. Compare expected dollars and the value of lower grades before treating that percentage as actionable.
What to verify for this topic
Use actual lower-grade sold evidence instead of assuming it is a fixed fraction of the PSA 10 price. Check whether the available raw copies have the same condition as the reference sales. Prices captured below are a dated model input, not a future resale commitment.
Dated reference examples
Captured September 5, 2026. These are database reference prices, not independently verified recent sold comparables or buy recommendations. Each linked record identifies its set and source.
Reshiram ex #173 — Pokemon White Flare
Victini #172 — Pokemon White Flare
Oshawott #105 — Pokemon White Flare
Reshiram ex #166 — Pokemon White Flare
| Card | Raw | PSA 10 | Gem rate | Expected net profit | PSA 10 net profit | PSA 10 ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reshiram ex #173 | $474.72 | $1300.00 | 60.0% | $338.00 | $631.28 | 126.3% |
| Victini #172 | $531.32 | $1475.00 | 52.0% | $327.80 | $726.93 | 130.7% |
| Oshawott #105 | $85.97 | $931.75 | 17.0% | $86.22 | $699.65 | 630.5% |
| Reshiram ex #166 | $192.90 | $439.88 | 55.0% | $64.81 | $164.80 | 75.6% |
Read the model correctly
The comparison uses a $25 PSA Value Bulk model fee and a 13% selling fee. Verify current service eligibility, declared-value limits and possible upcharges before submitting. The table excludes shipping, tax, insurance, supplies and time costs.
Expected net profit weights resale outcomes across the recorded grade distribution, applies the selling fee, and deducts raw and grading costs once. PSA 10 net profit assumes the card receives PSA 10. PSA 10 ROI divides that conditional profit by raw plus grading cost. It is not expected ROI.
Historical population shares are assumptions for this calculation, not personal grading probabilities. Missing grade-price references may use the engine's raw-price fallback; unmodeled outcomes and sparse records can materially change the result. Inspect the current card detail and replace reference inputs with your actual costs and verified sold evidence.
Incomplete outcome pricing in this snapshot: Reshiram ex #173; Victini #172; Oshawott #105. Treat their expected results as provisional.
Build a repeatable decision
Open a card record, check the exact variant and source, adjust the purchase assumptions, and save the analysis to your account. Revisit it before buying or submitting. The methodology explains the model; Pro describes the available research features. A saved analysis records a decision assumption, not a realized return.
Correction — September 5, 2026: Removed exaggerated profit language, unsupported lower-grade price ratios and claims that the cards are safe or price-stable. The URL is preserved so earlier links lead to the correction. The current table replaces the historical figures with a dated, explicitly labeled model snapshot.