Gouging Fire #38
Pokemon Surging Sparks · #038 · Base · Nov 2024
Maybe — Proceed with Caution
Should You Grade?
Raw Price
$1.47
Expected Value
$-5.61
Net Profit
$2.53
Gem Rate
22.3%
ROI
+15%
Sales / Yr
33
Negative expected value ($-5.61) — while a PSA 10 would be profitable, the probability-weighted outcome across all grades means you lose money on average at this grading tier. The gem rate is only 22% — you'll need a very clean copy to hit PSA 10. Only 33 sales per year — it may take time to find a buyer at full price. PSA 10 profit of $2.53 is thin — grading fees and selling costs eat most of the margin.
Best Tier for Flipping
Factors in grading cost, turnaround time, and compounding — how fast you can reinvest profits into the next flip.
Profitability by Grading Company
Shows the best-value tier from each grading company based on EV, cost, and turnaround. Pop = total graded population; 10s = grade 10 count.
Price by Grade
Raw
$1.47
BGS 10
$42.00
PSA 10
$32.25
CGC 10
$19.00
SGC 10
$19.00
BGS 9.5
$18.00
9
$9.91
8
$7.69
22.3%Gem Rate (PSA 10)
+10 graded in 30 days
+29 in 90 days
Grade Distribution (148 total graded)
148Total
PSA 103322.3%
PSA 97450.0%
PSA 83020.3%
PSA 764.1%
Below 721.4%