Professor Elm's Lecture #213
Pokemon Lost Thunder · #213 · Base · Nov 2018
Maybe — Proceed with Caution
Should You Grade?
Raw Price
$145.00
Expected Value
$-14.59
Net Profit
$18.50
Gem Rate
30.9%
ROI
+12%
Sales / Yr
182
Negative expected value ($-14.59) — while a PSA 10 would be profitable, the probability-weighted outcome across all grades means you lose money on average at this grading tier. The gem rate is only 31% — you'll need a very clean copy to hit PSA 10. PSA 10 profit of $18.50 is thin — grading fees and selling costs eat most of the margin.
Best Tier for Flipping
Factors in grading cost, turnaround time, and compounding — how fast you can reinvest profits into the next flip.
Profitability by Grading Company
Shows the best-value tier from each grading company based on EV, cost, and turnaround. Pop = total graded population; 10s = grade 10 count.
Price by Grade
Raw
$145.00
BGS 10
$923.00
PSA 10
$710.00
SGC 10
$426.00
CGC 10
$178.50
9
$153.52
8
$102.00
7
$81.15
30.9%Gem Rate (PSA 10)
+31 graded in 30 days
+69 in 90 days
Grade Distribution (1,105 total graded)
1,105Total
PSA 1034130.9%
PSA 939836.0%
PSA 819317.5%
PSA 7958.6%
Below 7777.0%