Professor Elm's Lecture #213

Pokemon Lost Thunder · #213 · Base · Nov 2018

Buy Raw on eBayPSA 10 Sold on eBay

Shop on TCGPlayer

Maybe — Proceed with Caution

Should You Grade?

Raw Price

$157.40

Expected Value

$-18.91

Net Profit

$3.10

Gem Rate

30.9%

ROI

+2%

Sales / Yr

180

Negative expected value ($-18.91) — while a PSA 10 would be profitable, the probability-weighted outcome across all grades means you lose money on average at this grading tier. The gem rate is only 31% — you'll need a very clean copy to hit PSA 10. PSA 10 profit of $3.10 is thin — grading fees and selling costs eat most of the margin.

Best Tier for Flipping

Unlock with Pro →

Factors in grading cost, turnaround time, and compounding — how fast you can reinvest profits into the next flip.

Profitability by Grading Company

Company	Best Tier	Gem Rate	Pop	10s	Cost	EV	Net Profit	ROI
PSA	PSA Standard	52.3%	8,420	1,250	$20.00	$85.40	$32.50	127%
BGS	BGS Standard	52.3%	8,420	1,250	$20.00	$85.40	$32.50	127%
CGC	CGC Standard	52.3%	8,420	1,250	$20.00	$85.40	$32.50	127%
SGC	SGC Standard	52.3%	8,420	1,250	$20.00	$85.40	$32.50	127%
TAG	TAG Standard	52.3%	8,420	1,250	$20.00	$85.40	$32.50	127%

Compare All Companies with Pro →

Shows the best-value tier from each grading company based on EV, cost, and turnaround. Pop = total graded population; 10s = grade 10 count.

Price by Grade

Raw

$157.40

BGS 10

$945.00

PSA 10

$727.02

SGC 10

$436.00

CGC 10

$175.50

$175.00

$104.33

$81.06

View Sold PSA 10 Prices on PriceCharting →View Grading Data on GemRate →

30.9%Gem Rate (PSA 10)

Grade Distribution (1,105 total graded)

1,105Total

PSA 1034130.9%

PSA 939836.0%

PSA 819317.5%

PSA 7958.6%

Below 7777.0%